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September 17, 2004

Is it time for the Spitball campaign to panic?

Mark Kleiman has tried his best to get Democrats to stop panicking over Senator Spitball's chances, but the best response he can get is Michelle Cottle at the New Republic.

To be fair, the thought of four more years of The George and Dick Show is enough to terrify anyone outside of John Ashcroft's immediate family. But if anti-Bushies insist on wallowing in their doubts, fears, and premature recriminations, they should do so beyond the earshot of the bloodthirsty political media. Publicized angst just plays into Republicans' message that Dems are a bunch of weak, self-doubting girly men.
The problem, you see, is that voters clearly do not want to re-elect Bush, but the media is manipulating them into doing it.

Cottle is not un-panicking; she is collapsing into being delusional. The girl really needs to get out of her little D.C. enclave.

Meanwhile, over at Tradesports, Bush is trading at 67, and if you count up the electoral votes for all the states where Bush is ahead in Tradesports, you get 284 electoral votes. Of all the states where Bush is ahead, the worst he is doing is in Wisconsin, where he is trading for 59. [Below the fold, I have put a table of the states (plus D.C.), with the last Tradesports price for Bush (as of this morning), plus each state's electoral vote, ranked by Bush price.] Notice that of the states where Bush is behind, in four of them (Iowa, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota), the price is closer to 50 than Wisconsin's 59 is. And so, the Washington Post reports, Bush is now aggressively contesting Democratic stronghold Minnesota.

Time to panic, guys.

State Bush price Electoral votes
 TEXAS 98 34
 NEBRASKA 97.5 5
 OKLAHOMA 97 7
 WYOMING 97 3
 GEORGIA 96.5 15
 ALABAMA 96 9
 ALASKA 96 3
 IDAHO 96 4
 INDIANA 96 11
 KANSAS 96 6
 MISSISSIPPI 96 6
 NORTHDAKOTA 96 3
 SOUTHDAKOTA 96 3
 UTAH 96 5
 MONTANA 95 3
 SOUTHCAROLINA 95 8
 LOUISIANA 93 9
 KENTUCKY 92.5 8
 VIRGINIA 89 13
 NORTHCAROLINA 85 15
 ARIZONA 83 10
 MISSOURI 81 11
 ARKANSAS 80 6
 COLORADO 80 9
 TENNESSEE 80 11
 WESTVIRGINIA 78 5
 OHIO 71 20
 FLORIDA 66 27
 NEVADA 65 5
 WISCONSIN 59 10
 IOWA 45 7
 NEWHAMPSHIRE 44 4
 PENNSYLVANIA 43.4 21
 MINNESOTA 41.7 10
 NEWMEXICO 40 5
 OREGON 38.8 7
 MICHIGAN 30.1 17
 NEWJERSEY 30.1 15
 MAINE 28 4
 WASHINGTON 27 11
 DELAWARE 18 3
 ILLINOIS 18 21
 MARYLAND 17.5 10
 HAWAII 12 4
 VERMONT 9.7 3
 CALIFORNIA 9.1 55
 NEWYORK 7 31
 CONNECTICUT 6 7
 MASSACHUSETTS 5.6 12
 RHODEISLAND 4 4
 DC 1 3


Posted by sjostrom on September 17, 2004 09:18 AM







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